← Trend Radar·AI/ML·Large Language Models
AI/ML↑ Average growth velocity

Large Language Models

Foundation models with emergent reasoning capabilities are rewriting what software can do — from writing code to diagnosing disease.

Innovators
Early Adopters
Early Majority
▲ Late Majority
Saturation
Papers Analyzed
74,201
research papers
Signal Clusters
12
research threads
Primary Driver
Tech
strongest force
Paper Coverage
2023–2026
publication years
Intelligence Brief

This research helps businesses automatically understand and organize vast amounts of text data, unlocking valuable insights for better decision making.

Late Majority

This is becoming standard practice. Most relevant organizations have adopted or are planning to. Innovation focus shifts to cost reduction and integration.

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Research Signals · 15 clusters detected

Showing the 66,762 papers in the largest 12 of 15 clusters. 7,439 further papers (10%) sit in smaller clusters not listed here. They are counted in Papers Analyzed, and in every topic-level figure on this page.

Late Majority● TechTracked since May 2026·5,286 papers·+3.7% MoM
S01

Model Evaluation

? What if we could reliably know exactly how much to trust an AI's answer, especially when it's wrong, so we don't accidentally make costly mistakes based on its faulty advice

This research cluster, comprising over 5,000 papers, focuses on how to rigorously evaluate and improve artificial intelligence models, particularly large language models. The core innovation is developing precise methods to measure AI performance, detect flaws like overconfidence or factual errors, and ensure AI behavior aligns with intended goals. This is critical now because AI systems are rapidly moving from experimental stages to real-world applications, and understanding their reliability and trustworthiness is paramount for successful deployment.

Adoption Curve

Unreliable projection · missed held-back months by 78%
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Deep Analysis

Within the next year, expect early adopters in fields like finance and software development to integrate more sophisticated AI evaluation tools to improve the accuracy and safety of their AI applications. By the time peak activity arrives in approximately three years, as indicated by the Bass diffusion model's projected market potential and adoption rates, AI evaluation will be a standard, indispensable component across most industries, enabling more complex and reliable AI systems. The main remaining barrier will be scaling these evaluation methods to keep pace with the rapid advancement of AI capabilities.

PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need new ways to understand and regulate the complex rules that artificial intelligence systems follow.

Economic

Businesses can make more reliable AI tools that understand customer needs and market trends, leading to better products and services.

Social

People will interact with AI that is more consistent and less prone to unexpected errors, building greater trust in these technologies.

Tech

This research helps create smarter AI that can learn, reason, and perform tasks more accurately, pushing the boundaries of what machines can do.

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Early Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·3,179 papers·+2.6% MoM
S02

Model Compression

? What if you could run the most advanced AI assistants on your personal device, making powerful generative capabilities accessible to everyone without needing massive cloud infrastructure

This research trend focuses on making large AI models, particularly those powering generative AI like ChatGPT, much smaller, faster, and more energy efficient. Analyzing thousands of research papers shows a significant shift from just building bigger models to finding clever ways to compress and optimize them for real-world use. This matters now because it unlocks the potential for powerful AI to run on everyday devices and at a lower cost for businesses.

Adoption Curve

Floor, not a measurement · monthly rate flat, no peak yet — no ceiling estimable, so this is a lower bound
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Deep Analysis

Within the next 12-18 months, expect to see more advanced AI features running directly on smartphones and laptops, with noticeable speed improvements. By 2027-2028, as this research hits its peak activity in about four years, we will likely see AI models that are not only efficient but also highly specialized for tasks like medical diagnosis or personalized education, driven by early adopters in tech and healthcare. The main hurdle remaining will be ensuring these optimized models maintain their accuracy and safety across diverse hardware.

PEST Implications

Political

Governments may see increased national competitiveness as countries develop more efficient AI tools for public services or defense.

Economic

Businesses can expect lower costs for running AI applications, making advanced technology accessible to more companies and potentially creating new markets.

Social

Everyday users might experience faster and more responsive AI features in apps and devices, improving their digital interactions.

Tech

This research will lead to smaller, faster, and more power-efficient AI models, enabling powerful AI to run on a wider range of devices, from smartphones to specialized hardware.

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Early Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·5,915 papers·+10.0% MoM
S03

Multi-Agent Systems

? What if your entire workforce could collectively learn and adapt at lightning speed to tackle any challenge, far surpassing individual human or current AI performance, making your organization dynamically responsive to every market shift.

This research explores how multiple artificial intelligence agents can collaborate and learn together, moving beyond individual AI capabilities to solve complex problems. The sheer volume of 5915 papers signals significant, sustained progress in making AI agents more adaptable, efficient, and capable of sustained reasoning, akin to a team of experts working on a problem. This advancement unlocks the potential for AI to handle intricate, long-term tasks that were previously beyond the reach of single AI systems, from scientific discovery to complex operational management.

Adoption Curve

Floor, not a measurement · monthly rate flat, no peak yet — no ceiling estimable, so this is a lower bound
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Deep Analysis

Within the next 12-18 months, expect to see initial deployments of multi agent systems in specialized enterprise functions like automated customer support and complex data analysis, led by tech forward companies. By 2027-2028, as adoption reaches the early majority stage, these systems will become more integrated into core business operations, with AI agents acting as automated project managers or specialized scientific assistants. The peak of this research activity, anticipated in about three years, will likely see widespread adoption across industries, though significant barriers around safety, verifiable reliability, and complex integration will still require focused solutions.

PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need to consider new regulations for how autonomous systems interact and make decisions, especially in public services.

Economic

Businesses can explore creating more sophisticated automated customer service or operational management systems that adapt to changing market conditions.

Social

We might see new forms of human-AI collaboration emerge, where artificial agents assist people in complex tasks or creative endeavors.

Tech

This research promises more intelligent and adaptable software agents that can learn, plan, and work together to solve problems in areas like robotics and data analysis.

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Early Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·2,752 papers·-14.6% MoM
S04

Model Security

? What if your company's customer service AI accidentally started giving dangerous advice instead of helpful answers?

This research focuses on protecting AI language models from malicious attacks that trick them into generating harmful content, ensuring safe and reliable AI use for businesses.

Adoption Curve

Floor, not a measurement · monthly rate flat, no peak yet — no ceiling estimable, so this is a lower bound
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PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need to establish new regulations to ensure the safety and trustworthiness of AI systems used in public services or critical infrastructure.

Economic

Businesses can protect their customers and reputation by investing in AI security tools that prevent malicious actors from exploiting their AI applications.

Social

As AI becomes more integrated into our lives, this research helps ensure that AI systems behave ethically and do not spread harmful misinformation or biases.

Tech

Developers can build more robust and secure AI models by understanding and defending against sophisticated attacks that target how these systems learn and operate.

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Early Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·4,177 papers·-20.1% MoM
S05

Software Engineering

? What if your company's entire software development process could be dramatically accelerated and de-risked by an intelligent assistant that understands and writes code like an expert, allowing you to innovate and adapt at unprecedented speed?

This research uses AI to help build and improve software, making development faster, more secure, and less error prone for businesses.

Adoption Curve

Floor, not a measurement · monthly rate flat, no peak yet — no ceiling estimable, so this is a lower bound
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PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need to update regulations concerning software safety and reliability as these tools become more capable of creating complex code.

Economic

Businesses can significantly reduce the cost and time needed to develop and fix software, leading to faster product launches and increased profits.

Social

Consumers will likely experience more stable and secure applications, as automated tools help catch errors and vulnerabilities before they impact users.

Tech

This research is rapidly advancing how software is built and maintained, making computers smarter and more helpful in everyday tasks.

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Late Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·4,007 papers·-8.4% MoM
S06

Reward Optimization

? What if your business could automatically train its most valuable employees to consistently make the absolute best decisions, all the time, without human intervention?

This research helps AI learn to make better decisions by optimizing rewards, leading to more effective and reliable AI applications for businesses.

Adoption Curve

Floor, not a measurement · monthly rate flat, no peak yet — no ceiling estimable, so this is a lower bound
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PEST Implications

Political

Governments might leverage these advanced AI systems to optimize resource allocation or improve public service delivery.

Economic

Businesses can expect more efficient automated decision-making, leading to cost savings and new revenue streams through smarter product development.

Social

Individuals may experience more personalized recommendations and assistance from AI, enhancing daily life and learning experiences.

Tech

This research is rapidly advancing AI's ability to learn and adapt, paving the way for more sophisticated and capable intelligent agents across industries.

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Early Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·5,450 papers·+17.2% MoM
S07

Model Distillation

? What if you could equip every employee with a superintelligent AI assistant that runs seamlessly on their existing device, no expensive cloud infrastructure required?

This research helps make powerful AI models smaller and faster, saving companies money and enabling wider use.

Adoption Curve

Floor, not a measurement · monthly rate flat, no peak yet — no ceiling estimable, so this is a lower bound
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PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need to consider how the increasing efficiency of AI models impacts national competitiveness and security.

Economic

Businesses can expect to see significant cost reductions in AI development and deployment, making advanced AI more accessible.

Social

Consumers might experience more personalized and responsive digital services as AI becomes more capable and efficient.

Tech

This research will lead to smaller, faster, and more powerful AI systems that can be integrated into a wider range of devices and applications.

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Early Adopters● TechTracked since Mar 2026·7,987 papers·+4.6% MoM
S08

Model Introspection

? What if your company's AI could be taught to genuinely understand and empathize with your customers' cultural backgrounds and personal values before it ever recommends a product or service?

This research explores how AI models behave and think, helping businesses understand and trust AI's decisions and impact on users.

Adoption Curve

Floor, not a measurement · monthly rate flat, no peak yet — no ceiling estimable, so this is a lower bound
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PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need to develop new policies to ensure AI systems are fair and unbiased, impacting how public services are delivered.

Economic

Businesses can gain a competitive edge by understanding how AI models make decisions, leading to more efficient operations and product development.

Social

The way people learn and interact with information will change as AI tutors and tools become more common, requiring new skills in critical evaluation.

Tech

This research helps create AI that can explain its own thinking, making complex AI systems more trustworthy and understandable for everyday users.

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Early Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·5,742 papers·-32.5% MoM
S09

Multimodal Vision

? What if a customer could describe exactly what they want to buy, and your systems could instantly find it in any image or video, even if they don't know the product name or brand?

This research helps AI understand images and text together, enabling smarter applications for businesses like better product recommendations and content analysis.

Adoption Curve

Floor, not a measurement · monthly rate flat, no peak yet — no ceiling estimable, so this is a lower bound
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PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need new regulations to manage the privacy and security implications of AI systems that can deeply understand and interact with visual information.

Economic

Businesses can unlock new revenue streams by creating more immersive and personalized customer experiences through AI that understands both images and text.

Social

Individuals might see more helpful AI assistants that can understand and respond to visual cues in everyday life, from identifying objects to helping with tasks.

Tech

This research is rapidly advancing AI's ability to interpret and generate visual content, paving the way for smarter cameras, more realistic virtual worlds, and sophisticated design tools.

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Late Majority● TechSettledTracked since Mar 2026·6,028 papers·-15.5% MoM
S10

Scientific Discovery

? What if your company could ask a super-intelligent assistant to invent entirely new products and uncover market secrets your competitors never dreamed of, without accidentally creating a disaster

This research explores how businesses can use advanced AI like large language models to uncover new insights, improve decision making, and build innovative products safely and effectively.

Adoption Curve

Validated projection · within 7% on held-back months
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PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need to establish new regulations to manage the ethical implications of AI-driven scientific breakthroughs.

Economic

Businesses can gain a competitive edge by adopting AI tools that accelerate research and development, leading to faster product innovation.

Social

Advances in AI can lead to personalized health and education solutions, improving individual well-being and learning experiences.

Tech

This research is fundamentally reshaping how we discover new knowledge, with AI becoming a powerful partner in scientific exploration.

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Late Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·11,712 papers·-17.7% MoM
S11

Applied Reasoning

? What if you could instantly know what your customers, employees, and the market are truly thinking, without hiring a single analyst or sifting through mountains of reports

This research helps businesses automatically understand and organize vast amounts of text data, unlocking valuable insights for better decision making.

Adoption Curve

Validated projection · within 8% on held-back months
Peak ~1.2yrNow100%50%0%Adoption-2yr-1yrToday+1yr+2yr+3yrModel fit 100%InnovatorsEarlyEarlyLateSaturation
Late Majority: This is becoming standard practice
69.3% of projected market reached
Peak expected in ~1.2 years

The field is maturing and becoming standard practice. Research focus is shifting from invention to optimisation and deployment at scale.

Hover the chart to explore adoption over time

Phase Position

RISINGDOMINANTEMERGINGMATUREAdoption →Velocity →0%100%69%v13
Late Majority· widely adopted, slowing down
69.3% adoption · velocity 13th percentile

PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need new regulations to address the spread of AI-generated misinformation and its impact on public discourse.

Economic

Businesses can leverage these advanced AI tools to automate complex tasks, personalize customer experiences, and discover new market opportunities.

Social

The way we interact with technology and each other could fundamentally change as AI becomes more adept at understanding and generating human-like communication.

Tech

Companies will gain powerful new capabilities for creating realistic digital content, recommending talent, and detecting sophisticated AI-driven manipulations.

Deeper Signals

Maturity, From the Writing Itself

Reads as Early Adopters based on how these papers are written, not the Late Majority stage the paper-volume model above shows. Papers frequently discuss applying LLMs to existing problems or propose novel approaches, indicating a phase of exploring and adapting new technologies.

Late Majority● TechTracked since Mar 2026·4,527 papers·-6.5% MoM
S12

Reasoning Enhancement

? What if your company's most complex strategic decisions could be made with the same depth of analysis and creative foresight as a seasoned human expert, but at machine speed.

This research helps computers think better and solve problems more effectively, leading to smarter business applications.

Adoption Curve

Moderate confidence · within 13% on held-back months
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PEST Implications

Political

Governments may need to develop new regulations for AI systems that can reason more effectively, especially concerning their use in decision-making processes.

Economic

Businesses can expect more powerful AI tools that automate complex problem-solving, leading to increased efficiency and potentially new service offerings.

Social

As AI reasoning improves, it could lead to more sophisticated personal assistants and educational tools, changing how people learn and interact with information.

Tech

This research fuels the development of AI that can tackle increasingly intricate tasks, moving us closer to machines that can genuinely understand and solve complex problems.

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Research Momentum

+20% year-over-year(2025 → 2026, sample papers)
2023163962024250292025299972026299970Papers

Based on representative paper sample per cluster · not a complete count

Stage Breakdown

Share of papers per adoption stage, weighted by cluster size.

Early Adopters11%
Early Majority37%
Late Majority43%

Research insights powered by Google Gemini

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